It's hard to pin down what the UIL might do with the dynamic south Texas
region. The Corpus Christi area appears to be shrinking in overall numbers,
while the Laredo and Rio Grande Valley areas are among the fastest growing
populations in the nation.
Assuming the UIL increases the 5-A D-1 playoff field to 64 per division, each
district will have 7 schools or more (no more 6-team districts). The Dallas and
Houston area look to net one additional district each, but those districts have
to come from somewhere. The shrinking Corpus Christi area is likely one of the
places it'll come.
It isn't likely the UIL will increase 4-A D-1 playoff fields to 64, but
rather leave them at 32. With only 3 playoff teams per district, it is not out
of the question that some districts will end up at 6 teams.
Using current enrollment figures, here is how I think it shakes out:
The loss of Corpus Christi Moody and Corpus Christi Miller to 4A coupled with
a growing Laredo/Rio Grande Valley forces the big schools in Corpus Christi to
consolidate northward. Victoria Memorial, Corpus Christi Carroll, Corpus Christi
King, and Corpus Christi Ray will be absorbed into a San Antonio-area district.
Laredo United South
Cigarroa, Johnson, and Martin are thought to have turned in 4A-level numbers,
but opted 5A to stay in the area. Eagle Pass opens a new school (C.C. Winn), and
joins Eagle Pass High in 29-4A.
Rio Grande City
The upper Valley will likely be similar, with the addition of the Edinburg
The Mid-Valley is projected to re-join old rivals, and begin some new ones as
well. PSJA Memorial takes the jump to 5A, after establishing a winning
reputation in the 4A ranks. What Weslaco and Donna lost in competition from
Edinburg schools, they will more than make up for with the addition of
high-powered offenses and stout defense in Sharyland, Harlingen, and Harlingen
With Lopez joining Brownsville peers in the 5A ranks, a solidified core of
Brownsville-area 5A schools is formed. The "Battle of the Arroyo"
(Harlingen vs San Benito) may not be a district game, but I suspect the stakes
will be higher as the two rivals find each other in a 64-team playoff field.
Corpus Christi Calallen
Corpus Christi Flour Bluff
Corpus Christi Moody
Corpus Christi Miller
The coastal bend will almost certainly change, with the addition of the two
Corpus Christi schools and the possible loss of Rockport Fulton, whose
enrollment is on the bubble for 3A. Tuloso-Midway (1,008) is another school on
the 3-A bubble, but will likely hold on to 4-A for at least one more round of
realignments. Port Lavaca Calhoun, currently in 24- 4A, is another school with
potential to find their way to this battle-tested district.
The Valley 4A district suffers for the loss of PSJA Memorial and Brownsville
Lopez to the 5A ranks. However, serious playoff opportunities present themselves
for teams in the district traditionally dominated by 'La Maquina Amarilla'
(The Yellow Machine) from Edcouch-Elsa. As 31-4A continues to bust at the seams,
I would not be surprised to see Alice or Kingsville King be considered for this
district as well. However, I suspect travel concerns will force the UIL to keep
them in 31-4A if at all possible.
Three schools that don't make the 4A cutoff this year, but will likely grow
into 4A schools in 2008 are Valley View (800), Zapata (857), and Hidalgo (836).